Forecasts* for the San Francisco Bay Area, San Mateo County, and the Skyline College Service Area to the Year 2020

Back to Index *Sources:
Projections 98, Association of Bay Area Governments, December 1997
Trends and Challenges, Association of Bay Area Governments, April, 1998

Summary Forecast: San Francisco Bay Region

Demography The San Francisco Bay Area is the fifth largest metropolitan area in the United States, exceeded only by Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, and Washington D.C. The estimated population of 6.4 million persons in 1995 is expected to grow by 22% to 7.8 million persons by the year 2020. During this same period, the number of jobs is predicted to increase from 3.0 million to 4.4 million and the number of employed persons from 3.1 million to 4.2 million.

People of color, who constituted 40% of the population in 1995 will comprise 53% of the population by 2020. The percentage of Caucasians will decrease from 61% to 47% and be balanced by increases in the percentages of Hispanics (up from 16% to 24%) and Asians (up from 16% to 20%). The African American population will remain near 9% through the period. A significant aging of the population is forecast. Between 1995 and 2020, the number of persons over 65 will increase from 12% to 20% and the number of persons over 85 will double and constitute 2.8% of the total population.

Labor Force More people will be working longer. Longer life expectancies, high costs of living, low savings rates, changes in retirement programs, and job market characteristics will combine to pressure people to postpone retirement and work longer. By 2020, 25% of persons over 65 will continue to work. The percentages of employed persons working at home and working at more than one job are expected to increase in response to traffic congestion and the high cost of living.

Education The size of the school age population will vary greatly during the next two decades. Some counties will experience double digit growth in the number of persons under 18, while other counties will see absolute reductions in the number of K-12 students. A sharp increase in the college-age population will put stress on existing facilities. The percentage of children of color, who now constitute more than 50% of the Bay Area's K-12 enrollment, will continue to grow as will the number of "limited English proficient" students.

Income Mean household income in the Bay Area, the highest in California, is projected to increase from $66,900 in 1995 to $96,700 in 2020. The income gap between the most affluent and least affluent communities is anticipated to grow larger. This phenomenon coupled with high costs of living threaten to push more people below the poverty line. Salaries in some of the fastest growing occupations are not sufficient to enable many households to be self-sufficient.

Industry Manufacturing, trade, and service industries will provide the bulk of the new jobs in the next two decades. Between 1995 and 2020, all Bay Area industries are forecast to grow by 45%. An important source of new jobs will come from "knowledge-based industry clusters" including computers and electronics, telecommunications, multimedia, movie/TV production, biotechnology, environmental technology, and travel and tourism. These clusters are projected to grow by 59% and will constitute 18% of the region's work force by 2020.

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	Forecasts* for the San Francisco Bay Area, San Mateo County, and the Skyline College Service Area to the Year 2020
Back to Index	*Sources: Projections 98, Association of Bay Area Governments, December 1997 Trends and Challenges, Association of Bay Area Governments, April, 1998

	Summary Forecast: San Francisco Bay Region

Demography	The San Francisco Bay Area is the fifth largest metropolitan area in the United States, exceeded only by Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, and Washington D.C. The estimated population of 6.4 million persons in 1995 is expected to grow by 22% to 7.8 million persons by the year 2020. During this same period, the number of jobs is predicted to increase from 3.0 million to 4.4 million and the number of employed persons from 3.1 million to 4.2 million.

	People of color, who constituted 40% of the population in 1995 will comprise 53% of the population by 2020. The percentage of Caucasians will decrease from 61% to 47% and be balanced by increases in the percentages of Hispanics (up from 16% to 24%) and Asians (up from 16% to 20%). The African American population will remain near 9% through the period. A significant aging of the population is forecast. Between 1995 and 2020, the number of persons over 65 will increase from 12% to 20% and the number of persons over 85 will double and constitute 2.8% of the total population.

Labor Force	More people will be working longer. Longer life expectancies, high costs of living, low savings rates, changes in retirement programs, and job market characteristics will combine to pressure people to postpone retirement and work longer. By 2020, 25% of persons over 65 will continue to work. The percentages of employed persons working at home and working at more than one job are expected to increase in response to traffic congestion and the high cost of living.

Education	The size of the school age population will vary greatly during the next two decades. Some counties will experience double digit growth in the number of persons under 18, while other counties will see absolute reductions in the number of K-12 students. A sharp increase in the college-age population will put stress on existing facilities. The percentage of children of color, who now constitute more than 50% of the Bay Area's K-12 enrollment, will continue to grow as will the number of "limited English proficient" students.

Income	Mean household income in the Bay Area, the highest in California, is projected to increase from $66,900 in 1995 to $96,700 in 2020. The income gap between the most affluent and least affluent communities is anticipated to grow larger. This phenomenon coupled with high costs of living threaten to push more people below the poverty line. Salaries in some of the fastest growing occupations are not sufficient to enable many households to be self-sufficient.

Industry	Manufacturing, trade, and service industries will provide the bulk of the new jobs in the next two decades. Between 1995 and 2020, all Bay Area industries are forecast to grow by 45%. An important source of new jobs will come from "knowledge-based industry clusters" including computers and electronics, telecommunications, multimedia, movie/TV production, biotechnology, environmental technology, and travel and tourism. These clusters are projected to grow by 59% and will constitute 18% of the region's work force by 2020.
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