
	Forecasts* for the San Francisco Bay Area, San Mateo County, and the Skyline College Service Area to the Year 2020
Back to Index	*Sources: Projections 98, Association of Bay Area Governments, December 1997 Trends and Challenges, Association of Bay Area Governments, April, 1998

Summary Forecast: Skyline College Service Area

Demography By the year 2000, the population of the Skyline service area is expected to reach 283,100 persons, an increase of 12.2% over the 1990 census count of 252,424 persons. From year 2000 to 2010 population growth will slow to 5% and then decline even further to 3% in the 2010 to 2020 period. In absolute terms, more than 70% of the anticipated population growth will come from Daly City and South San Francisco. The steepest rates of growth will take place in Brisbane and Colma.

Between year 2000 and 2020, the number of households is projected to increase by 8,850. South San Francisco will lead the way with 3,100 new households (a 16% increase) followed by Daly City with 2,740 new households (an 8% increase). In the period 1990 to 1995, average household size in the Skyline service area increased more rapidly than most Bay Area communities. Persons per household in South San Francisco, Daly City, and Pacifica are expected to remain well above the County average throughout the forecast period, while the remainder of the service area will maintain a household size below the County average. Most communities will see the number of persons per household increase until 2005, then gradually fall through 2020.

Labor Force The number of employed residents is anticipated to increase by 35,100 (26%) between 1995 and 2020. Daly City and South San Francisco will account for 63% of the increase in employed residents. During the same period, 37,790 new jobs will be created. Daly City and South San Francisco will account for 26,940 (70%) of new jobs, while the growth rate of new jobs in Colma (86%) and Brisbane (56%) will be highest. The expansion of San Francisco International Airport will generate 7,750 new jobs (not included in service area totals) during the forecast period. New job creation will significantly outstrip growth in the local labor force and will lead to a significant increase in the number of commuters to north County workplaces.

Income In 1995, mean household income in all service area communities was less than the County average of $77,900. Millbrae recorded the highest mean household income of $69,900 and Colma exhibited the lowest at $44,700. With the exception of Millbrae, all service area communities will continue to have mean household incomes well below the County average. This income gap is expected to widen and by 2020, household incomes of service area cities (Millbrae excepted) will be only 57% to 80% of the County average of $117,700. The high cost of housing, goods, and services in the service area may force many low-income families below the self-sufficiency level. Many of the new entry level jobs will not provide enough income to keep families above the "real" poverty level. The widening gap between the "haves and the have-nots" and the societal problems that are likely to ensue represent a major challenge for County government.

Industry Service industries will account for 54% of the 37,790 new jobs that are projected between 1995 and 2020. Retail (16%), manufacturing and wholesale (14%), and other industries (17%) (includes transportation) will also contribute substantially to industrial expansion. All communities will experience significant increases in the number of service jobs although Daly City and South San Francisco will contribute most in absolute terms. Of the 5,270 new jobs in the manufacturing and wholesale sector, 53% of the total are expected to be created in South San Francisco between 2010 and 2020. Almost half of the 6,030 new jobs in the retail sector will also be created between 2010 and 2020 and will be concentrated Daly City and South San Francisco. The 6290 new jobs projected in the other category will be matched by the 6310 new jobs in these industries resulting from airport expansion. Many of these will be in the transportation and construction industries.

		Summary Forecast: Skyline College Service Area
Demography		By the year 2000, the population of the Skyline service area is expected to reach 283,100 persons, an increase of 12.2% over the 1990 census count of 252,424 persons. From year 2000 to 2010 population growth will slow to 5% and then decline even further to 3% in the 2010 to 2020 period. In absolute terms, more than 70% of the anticipated population growth will come from Daly City and South San Francisco. The steepest rates of growth will take place in Brisbane and Colma.
		Between year 2000 and 2020, the number of households is projected to increase by 8,850. South San Francisco will lead the way with 3,100 new households (a 16% increase) followed by Daly City with 2,740 new households (an 8% increase). In the period 1990 to 1995, average household size in the Skyline service area increased more rapidly than most Bay Area communities. Persons per household in South San Francisco, Daly City, and Pacifica are expected to remain well above the County average throughout the forecast period, while the remainder of the service area will maintain a household size below the County average. Most communities will see the number of persons per household increase until 2005, then gradually fall through 2020.
Labor Force		The number of employed residents is anticipated to increase by 35,100 (26%) between 1995 and 2020. Daly City and South San Francisco will account for 63% of the increase in employed residents. During the same period, 37,790 new jobs will be created. Daly City and South San Francisco will account for 26,940 (70%) of new jobs, while the growth rate of new jobs in Colma (86%) and Brisbane (56%) will be highest. The expansion of San Francisco International Airport will generate 7,750 new jobs (not included in service area totals) during the forecast period. New job creation will significantly outstrip growth in the local labor force and will lead to a significant increase in the number of commuters to north County workplaces.
Income		In 1995, mean household income in all service area communities was less than the County average of $77,900. Millbrae recorded the highest mean household income of $69,900 and Colma exhibited the lowest at $44,700. With the exception of Millbrae, all service area communities will continue to have mean household incomes well below the County average. This income gap is expected to widen and by 2020, household incomes of service area cities (Millbrae excepted) will be only 57% to 80% of the County average of $117,700. The high cost of housing, goods, and services in the service area may force many low-income families below the self-sufficiency level. Many of the new entry level jobs will not provide enough income to keep families above the "real" poverty level. The widening gap between the "haves and the have-nots" and the societal problems that are likely to ensue represent a major challenge for County government.
Industry		Service industries will account for 54% of the 37,790 new jobs that are projected between 1995 and 2020. Retail (16%), manufacturing and wholesale (14%), and other industries (17%) (includes transportation) will also contribute substantially to industrial expansion. All communities will experience significant increases in the number of service jobs although Daly City and South San Francisco will contribute most in absolute terms. Of the 5,270 new jobs in the manufacturing and wholesale sector, 53% of the total are expected to be created in South San Francisco between 2010 and 2020. Almost half of the 6,030 new jobs in the retail sector will also be created between 2010 and 2020 and will be concentrated Daly City and South San Francisco. The 6290 new jobs projected in the other category will be matched by the 6310 new jobs in these industries resulting from airport expansion. Many of these will be in the transportation and construction industries.