
	Forecasts* for the San Francisco Bay Area, San Mateo County, and the Skyline College Service Area to the Year 2020
Back to Index	*Sources: Projections 98, Association of Bay Area Governments, December 1997 Trends and Challenges, Association of Bay Area Governments, April, 1998

Summary Forecast: San Mateo County

Demography By the year 2000, the population of San Mateo County is expected to reach 729,500 persons, an increase of 12.3% over the 1990 census count of 649,623 persons. The estimated population of 687,500 in 1995 is projected to grow by 16% to 798,600 by 2020. The high cost of living and continued limited availability of affordable housing in the next two decades will restrain population growth to a rate well below projected rates for the Bay Area (22%) and the Statewide average (53%). Existing trends towards an older and more diverse population are expected to continue.

Between 1995 and 2020, the County will add 34,530 households. Absolute growth will be concentrated in South San Francisco, Redwood City, Daly City, and San Mateo. Average household size, which is increasing faster than any other Bay Area county, will continue to rise and peak at 2.84 persons in 2005, and then fall slightly to about 2.80 by 2015.

Labor Force The number of employed residents is anticipated to increase by 93,700 between 1995 and 2020. During the same period, 112,940 new jobs will be created. Rapid growth in jobs and low unemployment (2.3% in May, 1998) will sustain a tight labor market for several years and generate more commuter traffic into the County. San Mateo County is expected to participate in trends toward an older work force with more people working at home and at more than one job.

Education The size of the school age population in San Mateo County will grow at a slower rate than most Bay Area Counties. Total K-12 public school enrollments grew by 9.6% between Fall 1992 and Fall 1996. From Fall 1996 through Fall 2003 growth is expected to slow to 6.7%. Growth will be concentrated in school districts in southern and central San Mateo County. Student diversity will continue to increase as greater numbers of Asian and Hispanic children reach the school-age population.

Income Mean household income in San Mateo County is projected to increase from $77,900 in 1995 to $117,700 in 2020. The income gap between the most affluent communities is striking. In 1995 for example, mean household incomes for Atherton, Woodside, and Hillsborough were approximately five times those of Daly City or South San Francisco. The income gap is likely to grow and may exacerbate housing, cost of living, and self-sufficiency concerns for low-income working families.

Industry Service, trade, manufacturing, transportation and communication industries will provide the bulk of new jobs in the next two decades. More than 40% of projected job growth will be in service industries. Between 1995 and 2020, job growth in business services is projected at 93%. Many of the County's new jobs will be concentrated in knowledge-based industries, especially computers and electronics, biotechnology, and industries associated with airport expansion. Industry development will be concentrated in East Palo Alto, Redwood City, South San Francisco, and San Mateo.

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		Summary Forecast: San Mateo County

Demography		By the year 2000, the population of San Mateo County is expected to reach 729,500 persons, an increase of 12.3% over the 1990 census count of 649,623 persons. The estimated population of 687,500 in 1995 is projected to grow by 16% to 798,600 by 2020. The high cost of living and continued limited availability of affordable housing in the next two decades will restrain population growth to a rate well below projected rates for the Bay Area (22%) and the Statewide average (53%). Existing trends towards an older and more diverse population are expected to continue.

		Between 1995 and 2020, the County will add 34,530 households. Absolute growth will be concentrated in South San Francisco, Redwood City, Daly City, and San Mateo. Average household size, which is increasing faster than any other Bay Area county, will continue to rise and peak at 2.84 persons in 2005, and then fall slightly to about 2.80 by 2015.

Labor Force		The number of employed residents is anticipated to increase by 93,700 between 1995 and 2020. During the same period, 112,940 new jobs will be created. Rapid growth in jobs and low unemployment (2.3% in May, 1998) will sustain a tight labor market for several years and generate more commuter traffic into the County. San Mateo County is expected to participate in trends toward an older work force with more people working at home and at more than one job.

Education		The size of the school age population in San Mateo County will grow at a slower rate than most Bay Area Counties. Total K-12 public school enrollments grew by 9.6% between Fall 1992 and Fall 1996. From Fall 1996 through Fall 2003 growth is expected to slow to 6.7%. Growth will be concentrated in school districts in southern and central San Mateo County. Student diversity will continue to increase as greater numbers of Asian and Hispanic children reach the school-age population.

Income		Mean household income in San Mateo County is projected to increase from $77,900 in 1995 to $117,700 in 2020. The income gap between the most affluent communities is striking. In 1995 for example, mean household incomes for Atherton, Woodside, and Hillsborough were approximately five times those of Daly City or South San Francisco. The income gap is likely to grow and may exacerbate housing, cost of living, and self-sufficiency concerns for low-income working families.

Industry		Service, trade, manufacturing, transportation and communication industries will provide the bulk of new jobs in the next two decades. More than 40% of projected job growth will be in service industries. Between 1995 and 2020, job growth in business services is projected at 93%. Many of the County's new jobs will be concentrated in knowledge-based industries, especially computers and electronics, biotechnology, and industries associated with airport expansion. Industry development will be concentrated in East Palo Alto, Redwood City, South San Francisco, and San Mateo.
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